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Latest Edition

WORLD

US-Iran ceasefire announced but already fractured within 24 hours—markets rallied on the headline alone, suggesting investors are pricing in *hope* rather than reality. Polymarket odds confirm skepticism: only 38% probability the broader conflict ends by April 7, yet 100% odds on US forces entering Iran by year-end.
Lebanon casualty toll now at 182+ from Israeli strikes, indicating the ceasefire is limited in scope and does not address the broader regional escalation. This is a bilateral US-Iran arrangement, not a regional peace.
Oil plunged on ceasefire optimism (reducing supply concerns), but geopolitical tail risk remains acute—energy markets are vulnerable to a…

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